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Date May 2016 Marks available 3 Reference code 16M.3sp.hl.TZ0.1
Level HL only Paper Paper 3 Statistics and probability Time zone TZ0
Command term Find Question number 1 Adapted from N/A

Question

Adam does the crossword in the local newspaper every day. The time taken by Adam, \(X\) minutes, to complete the crossword is modelled by the normal distribution \({\text{N}}(22,{\text{ }}{5^2})\).

Beatrice also does the crossword in the local newspaper every day. The time taken by Beatrice, \(Y\) minutes, to complete the crossword is modelled by the normal distribution \({\text{N}}(40,{\text{ }}{6^2})\).

Given that, on a randomly chosen day, the probability that he completes the crossword in less than \(a\) minutes is equal to 0.8, find the value of \(a\).

[3]
a.

Find the probability that the total time taken for him to complete five randomly chosen crosswords exceeds 120 minutes.

[3]
b.

Find the probability that, on a randomly chosen day, the time taken by Beatrice to complete the crossword is more than twice the time taken by Adam to complete the crossword. Assume that these two times are independent.

[6]
c.

Markscheme

\(z = 0.841 \ldots \)    (A1)

\(a = \mu  + z\sigma \)    (M1)

\( = 26.2\)    A1

[3 marks]

a.

let \(T\) denote the total time taken to complete 5 crosswords.

\(T\) is \({\text{N}}(110,{\text{ }}125)\)     (A1)(A1)

Note:     A1 for the mean and A1 for the variance.

\({\text{P}}(T > 120) = 0.186\)    A1

[3 marks]

b.

consider the random variable \(U = Y - 2X\)     (M1)

\({\text{E}}(U) =  - 4\)    A1

\({\text{Var}}(U) = {\text{Var}}(Y) + 4{\text{Var}}(X)\)    (M1)

\( = 136\)    A1

\({\text{P}}(Y > 2X) = {\text{P}}(U > 0)\)    (M1)

\( = 0.366\)    A1

[6 marks]

c.

Examiners report

Part (a) was very well answered with only a very few weak candidates using 0.8 instead of 0.841...

a.

Part (b) was well answered with only a few candidates calculating the variance incorrectly.

b.

Part (c) was again well answered. The most common errors, not often seen, were writing the variance of \(Y - 2X\) as either \({\text{Var}}(Y) + 2{\text{Var}}(X)\) or \({\text{Var}}(Y) - 2(or{\text{ }}4){\text{Var}}(X)\).

c.

Syllabus sections

Topic 7 - Option: Statistics and probability
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