Date | May 2014 | Marks available | 14 | Reference code | 14M.3sp.hl.TZ0.3 |
Level | HL only | Paper | Paper 3 Statistics and probability | Time zone | TZ0 |
Command term | Determine, Show that, Verify, and Write down | Question number | 3 | Adapted from | N/A |
Question
(a) Consider the random variable X for which E(X)=aλ+b, where a and bare constants and λ is a parameter.
Show that X−ba is an unbiased estimator for λ.
(b) The continuous random variable Y has probability density function
f(y)={29(3+y−λ),0,forλ−3≤y≤λotherwise
where λ is a parameter.
(i) Verify that f(y) is a probability density function for all values of λ.
(ii) Determine E(Y).
(iii) Write down an unbiased estimator for λ.
Markscheme
(a) E(X−ba)=aλ+b−ba M1A1
=λ A1
(Therefore X−ba is an unbiased estimator for λ) AG
[3 marks]
(b) (i) f(y)⩾ R1
Note: Only award R1 if this statement is made explicitly.
recognition or showing that integral of f is 1 (seen anywhere) R1
EITHER
\int_{\lambda - 3}^\lambda {\frac{2}{9}(3 + y - \lambda ){\text{d}}y} M1
= \frac{2}{9}\left[ {(3 - \lambda )y + \frac{1}{2}{y^2}} \right]_{\lambda - 3}^\lambda A1
= \frac{2}{9}\left( {\lambda (3 - \lambda ) + \frac{1}{2}{\lambda ^2} - (3 - \lambda )(\lambda - 3) - \frac{1}{2}{{(\lambda - 3)}^2}} \right) or equivalent A1
= 1
OR
the graph of the probability density is a triangle with base length 3 and height \frac{2}{3} M1A1
its area is therefore \frac{1}{2} \times 3 \times \frac{2}{3} A1
= 1
(ii) {\text{E}}(Y) = \int_{\lambda - 3}^\lambda {\frac{2}{9}y(3 + y - \lambda ){\text{d}}y} M1
= \frac{2}{9}\left[ {(3 - \lambda )\frac{1}{2}{y^2} + \frac{1}{3}{y^3}} \right]_{\lambda - 3}^\lambda A1
= \frac{2}{9}\left( {(3 - \lambda )\frac{1}{2}\left( {{\lambda ^2} - {{(\lambda - 3)}^2}} \right) + \frac{1}{3}\left( {{\lambda ^3} - {{(\lambda - 3)}^3}} \right)} \right) M1
= \lambda - 1 A1A1
Note: Award 3 marks for noting that the mean is \frac{2}{3}{\text{rds}} the way along the base and then A1A1 for \lambda - 1.
Note: Award A1 for \lambda and A1 for –1.
(iii) unbiased estimator: Y + 1 A1
Note: Accept \bar Y + 1.
Follow through their {\text{E}}(Y) if linear.
[11 marks]
Total [14 marks]