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Date May 2012 Marks available 1 Reference code 12M.3sp.hl.TZ0.2
Level HL only Paper Paper 3 Statistics and probability Time zone TZ0
Command term Deduce Question number 2 Adapted from N/A

Question

The random variable X has a geometric distribution with parameter p .

Show that \({\text{P}}(X \leqslant n) = 1 - {(1 - p)^n},{\text{ }}n \in {\mathbb{Z}^ + }\) .

[3]
a.

Deduce an expression for \({\text{P}}(m < X \leqslant n)\,,{\text{ }}m\,,{\text{ }}n \in {\mathbb{Z}^ + }\) and m < n .

[1]
b.

Given that p = 0.2, find the least value of n for which \({\text{P}}(1 < X \leqslant n) > 0.5\,,{\text{ }}n \in {\mathbb{Z}^ + }\) .

[2]
c.

Markscheme

\({\text{P}}(X \leqslant n) = \sum\limits_{{\text{i}} = 1}^n {{\text{P}}(X = {\text{i}}) = \sum\limits_{{\text{i}} = 1}^n {p{q^{{\text{i}} - 1}}} } \)     M1A1

\( = p\frac{{1 - {q^n}}}{{1 - q}}\)     A1

\( = 1 - {(1 - p)^n}\)     AG

[3 marks]

a.

\({(1 - p)^m} - {(1 - p)^n}\)     A1

[1 mark]

b.

attempt to solve \(0.8 - {(0.8)^n} > 0.5\)     M1

obtain n = 6     A1

[2 marks]

c.

Examiners report

In part (a) some candidates thought that the geometric distribution was continuous, so attempted to integrate the pdf! Others, less seriously, got the end points of the summation wrong.

In part (b) It was very disappointing that may candidates, who got an incorrect answer to part (a), persisted with their incorrect answer into this part.

a.

In part (a) some candidates thought that the geometric distribution was continuous, so attempted to integrate the pdf! Others, less seriously, got the end points of the summation wrong.

In part (b) It was very disappointing that may candidates, who got an incorrect answer to part (a), persisted with their incorrect answer into this part.

b.

In part (a) some candidates thought that the geometric distribution was continuous, so attempted to integrate the pdf! Others, less seriously, got the end points of the summation wrong.

In part (b) It was very disappointing that may candidates, who got an incorrect answer to part (a), persisted with their incorrect answer into this part.

c.

Syllabus sections

Topic 7 - Option: Statistics and probability » 7.1 » Geometric distribution.

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