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Date May 2014 Marks available 2 Reference code 14M.2.sl.TZ2.1
Level SL only Paper 2 Time zone TZ2
Command term Calculate Question number 1 Adapted from N/A

Question

Tomek is attending a conference in Singapore. He has both trousers and shorts to wear. He also has the choice of wearing a tie or not.

The probability Tomek wears trousers is 0.3. If he wears trousers, the probability that he wears a tie is 0.8.

If Tomek wears shorts, the probability that he wears a tie is 0.15.

The following tree diagram shows the probabilities for Tomek’s clothing options at the conference.


Find the value of

(i)     A;

(ii)     B;

(iii)     C.

[3]
a.

Calculate the probability that Tomek wears

(i)     shorts and no tie;

(ii)     no tie;

(iii)     shorts given that he is not wearing a tie.

[8]
b.

The conference lasts for two days.

Calculate the probability that Tomek wears trousers on both days.

[2]
c.

The conference lasts for two days.

Calculate the probability that Tomek wears trousers on one of the days, and shorts on the other day.

[3]
d.

Markscheme

(i)     0.7(70100, 710, 70% )     (A1)

(ii)     0.2(20100, 210, 15, 20% )     (A1)

(iii)     0.85(85100, 1720, 85% )     (A1)

[3 marks]

a.

(i)     0.7×0.85     (M1)

 

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying their values from parts (a)(i) and (a)(iii).

 

=0.595 (119200, 59.5% )     (A1)(ft)(G1)

 

Note: Follow through from part (a).

 

(ii)     0.3×0.2+0.7×0.85     (M1)(M1)

 

Note: Award (M1) for their two products, (M1) for adding their two products.

 

=0.655 (131200, 65.5% )     (A1)(ft)(G2)

 

Note: Follow through from part (a).

 

(iii)     0.5950.655     (A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)

 

Notes: Award (A1)(ft) for correct numerator, (A1)(ft) for correct denominator. Follow through from parts (b)(i) and (ii).

 

=0.908 (0.90839, 119131, 90,8% )     (A1)(ft)(G2)

[8 marks]

b.

0.3×0.3     (M1)

=0.09(9100,9%)     (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

c.

0.3×0.7     (M1)

0.3×0.7×2   OR   (0.3×0.7)+(0.7×0.3)     (M1)

 

Note: Award (M1) for their correct product seen, (M1) for multiplying their product by 2 or for adding their products twice.

 

=0.42(42100,2150,42%)     (A1)(ft)(G2)

 

Note: Follow through from part (a)(i).

 

[3 marks]

d.

Examiners report

[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.

Syllabus sections

Topic 3 - Logic, sets and probability » 3.7 » Probability of combined events, mutually exclusive events, independent events.
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