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DP IB Maths: AI HL

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Home / IB / Maths: AI HL / DP / Topic Questions / 4. Statistics & Probability / 4.3 Further Correlation & Regression


4.3 Further Correlation & Regression

Question 1a

Marks: 3

Jun is investigating the growth patterns of a certain species of slug and measures their thickness, t, and length, l. The results are shown below.

 

Thickness, t (mm)

9

8

4

3

6

10

Length, l (cm)

5.9

4.1

2.1

1.8

3.0

7.8

 

a)
Draw a scatter diagram of the data and explain why a line of best fit should not be used for this data.
mi_q1a_4-3_further-correlation-_-regression_hard_dig
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    Question 1b

    Marks: 4

    Jun thinks that an exponential model of the form l equals 2 open parentheses 1.15 close parentheses to the power of t may fit the data, his sister Lily thinks that a quadratic model of the form l equals 0.06 t squared plus 1 is a better fit for the data.

    b)
    Calculate the sum of the squared residuals, S S subscript r e s end subscript, for
    (i)
    Jun’s model, 
    (ii)
    Lily’s model.

     

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      Question 1c

      Marks: 2
      c)
      Hence, choose whether Jun’s model or Lily’s model best fits the data, giving a reason for your answer.

       

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        Question 2a

        Marks: 2

        Wallace wants to model the path of some cylindrical cheeses as they roll down a hill. He measures the vertical distance from the bottom of the hill and the horizontal distance from the point at which the cheese was released at specific points on the path that the cheese takes. These measurements are recorded in the table below.

         

        Horizontal Distance, x (m)

        0

        1

        2

        3

        4

        5

        6

        7

        8

        Vertical Distance,y (m)

        8.00

        7.47

        6.08

        4.19

        2.23

        0.23

        0.00

        0.29

        1.46

        a)
        By first plotting a scatter diagram on your GDC, choose whether a sinusoidal model or a power model would be a better fit for the data.
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          Question 2b

          Marks: 2
          b)
          Use your graphic display calculator to find the best fit function for the data points.
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            Question 2c

            Marks: 2
            c)
            Find the coefficient of determination and comment on the closeness of fit to the original data.
              Assess your score
                

              Question 2d

              Marks: 1
              d)
              Explain why this model could not be used outside of the range of the data collected.
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                Key Concepts
                Non-linear Regression

                Question 3a

                Marks: 2

                A café in the UK begins selling ice creams on the 1st April each year and keeps track of their ice cream sales each month until they stop selling them at the end of October. The results from the year 2021 are shown in the table below. 

                Month

                April

                May

                June

                July

                August

                Sept

                Oct

                Sales

                82

                142

                391

                516

                728

                312

                64

                 

                a)
                Suggest a reason why the café owner may choose to use a quadratic function to model the monthly number of ice cream sales.
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                  Question 3b

                  Marks: 2
                  b)
                  Use technology to find the quadratic function of best fit for the data.
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                    Question 3c

                    Marks: 2
                    c)
                    Find the coefficient of determination and interpret the result in context.

                     

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                      Question 3d

                      Marks: 2
                      d)
                      The café owner believes he may have miscalculated the ice cream sales in August. Use the model to find an estimate for the true number of sales of ice creams in August. Comment on the reliability of using the model in this context.

                       

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                        Question 4a

                        Marks: 3

                        An ecologist is researching the connection between the mass of different species of rabbits and the spread of their population. She is looking at time taken for a population of 100 to increase to 1000 in four different species of rabbit. The table below shows the average mass of an adult male and the time, in months, for the population to reach 1000.

                         

                        Rabbit Species

                        Brush Rabbit

                        Lionhead

                        Swamp Rabbit

                        English Lop

                        Average mass (k g)

                        0.7

                        1.2

                        2.1

                        5.2

                        Time (months)

                        7

                        8

                        11

                        24

                         

                        The ecologist believes that the amount of time for a population to reach 1000 can be modelled by an exponential function of the form T equals 5.89 space e to the power of 0.273 m end exponent where T is the time in months, and m is the mass in kg.

                        a)
                        Using the exponential model, find the predicted time taken for each species to reach a population of 1000 and hence the sum of the squared residuals, S S subscript r e s end subscript, for the model.
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                          Question 4b

                          Marks: 3
                          b)
                          Using technology, find the coefficient of determination for
                          (i)
                          the exponential model,
                          (ii)
                          the least squares regression quadratic model.
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                            Question 4c

                            Marks: 2
                            c)
                            Hence state which function is more appropriate to model the amount of time for a population to reach 1000. Give a reason for your answer.
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                              Question 4d

                              Marks: 1
                              d)
                              State one concern about the reliability of the model.
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                                Key Concepts
                                Non-linear Regression

                                Question 5a

                                Marks: 3

                                As a unicorn moves through the sky its magical sparkling trail becomes more prominent and draws a crowd of elves out to see it. The unicorn flies up high into the sky for a short while, drops down to a height of just above the elves’ heads and then comes to its landing place on a cliff top 10 metres above ground level. The horizontal and vertical distances, in metres, of the sparkling trail from the base of the rock that the unicorn started from have been measured for several points and recorded in the table below. 

                                 x

                                10

                                20

                                30

                                40

                                50

                                60

                                 y

                                53

                                82

                                116

                                95

                                3

                                10

                                a)
                                Find an appropriate cubic model and quartic model for the data, giving all coefficients correct to four significant figures.
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                                  Question 5b

                                  Marks: 3
                                  b)
                                  Find the coefficient of determination for both models found in part (a) and comment on the reliability of each model.

                                   

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                                    Question 5c

                                    Marks: 3
                                    c)
                                    State an alternative type of model that may be more suitable for the data and find
                                    (i)
                                    an equation for this model,
                                    (ii)
                                    the coefficient of determination for this model.
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                                      Question 5d

                                      Marks: 2
                                      d)
                                      Comment on why this model is a better fit for the sparkly trail than the initial cubic and quartic models.
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                                        Question 6a

                                        Marks: 5

                                        Scientists are collecting information about oxygen levels and temperature in the ocean. They collect data from various different sites. The information is recorded in the table below. 

                                        Temperature at surface, T (°C)

                                        13.2

                                        11.1

                                        23.6

                                        15.1

                                        4.2

                                        29.1

                                        19.1

                                        Dissolved Oxygen Content, D( mgL-1)

                                        9.1

                                        10.9

                                        8.7

                                        9.0

                                        13.6

                                        8.1

                                        8.8

                                         

                                        a)
                                        Use your graphic display calculator to
                                        (i)
                                        find an appropriate quadratic model and logarithmic model for the data,
                                        (ii)
                                        investigate whether a quadratic or a logarithmic model best fits the data, giving reasons for your answer.
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                                          Question 6b

                                          Marks: 1
                                          b)
                                          Explain what action the scientists could take to further investigate which model is best.
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                                            Question 6c

                                            Marks: 3
                                            c)
                                            For both models found in part (a), find an approximation for the dissolved oxygen content in an ocean of 35 degree C and comment on the validity of your answers.
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                                              Question 7a

                                              Marks: 4

                                              A new company believes that their net profit, t months after opening, can be modelled by the equation

                                               P open parentheses t close parentheses equals A t e to the power of b t end exponent comma space space space space space space space A comma b element of straight real numbers 

                                              Their net profit at different times over the first year is given in the table below.

                                               

                                               t (months)

                                              2

                                              5

                                              10

                                              12

                                              P ($1000)

                                              0.2

                                              2.5

                                              51.6

                                              201.9

                                               

                                              a)
                                              Given A equals 0.04 and b equals 0.5, calculate the sum of the squared residuals,S S subscript r e s end subscript for this model and comment on its suitability.
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                                                Question 7b

                                                Marks: 4
                                                b)
                                                Show that a second model for the net profit over time can be given as

                                                 ln space P equals 0.6764 t minus 2.764

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                                                  Question 7c

                                                  Marks: 2
                                                  c)
                                                  Choosing the model from part (a) or (b) that you believe to fit the data best, find an estimate for the net profit gained by the company after 20 months.
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                                                    Key Concepts
                                                    Non-linear Regression

                                                    Question 7d

                                                    Marks: 1
                                                    d)
                                                    Comment on the reliability of the answer found in part (c), giving a reason for your answer.
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                                                      Key Concepts
                                                      Non-linear Regression

                                                      Question 8a

                                                      Marks: 3

                                                      A biologist is researching a connection between the mass of an animal, M kg, and its expected lifespan, L years.  The biologist suggests that there exists a relationship of the form L equals A M to the power of B,  where A and B are constants to be found.

                                                      a)
                                                      Show that the relationship can be rewritten using logarithms as
                                                      log space L equals log space A space plus B space log space M

                                                       

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                                                        Question 8b

                                                        Marks: 2

                                                        Using data from a wide range of animals, when y equals log space L is plotted against x equals log space M on a scatter diagram there seems to be a strong positive correlation. When the regression line of y on x is calculated, the equation is found to be y equals 0.18 x plus 0.98.

                                                        b)
                                                        By relating the equation of the regression line to the equation found in (a), or otherwise, find the constants A and B correct to 2 decimal places where appropriate
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                                                          Question 8c

                                                          Marks: 1
                                                          c)
                                                          Hence, predict the lifespan of a horse with a mass of 600 kg to the nearest year.
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                                                            Key Concepts
                                                            Linear Regression

                                                            Question 8d

                                                            Marks: 1

                                                            The biologist concludes the research by suggesting that one way to increase your lifespan is to increase your mass.

                                                            d)
                                                            Explain, based on these data, why the biologist may be incorrect.
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                                                              Key Concepts
                                                              Non-linear Regression

                                                              Question 9a

                                                              Marks: 4

                                                              A virologist is studying the growth rate of a particular type of virus when attached to a particular host cell. They record the number of cells of the virus and the time in minutes that has elapsed since the virus attached to the host cell. The results are recorded in the table below. 

                                                              Time ( t hours)

                                                              0

                                                              1

                                                              2

                                                              3

                                                              4

                                                              5

                                                              Number of cells (n)

                                                              1

                                                              22

                                                              604

                                                              11270

                                                              125242

                                                              1007518

                                                              The virologist wants to linearise the data. They take logarithms of the number of cells for 1 less or equal than t less or equal than 5 and draw a semi-log graph of their calculated data. 

                                                              a)
                                                              Draw a semi-log graph of the calculated data y equals ln space n, against time, t, for 1 less or equal than t less or equal than 5.
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                                                                Question 9b

                                                                Marks: 2
                                                                b)
                                                                Find the equation of the regression line of y on t, giving your answer in the form y equals a t plus b, where a and b are constants to be found.

                                                                 

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                                                                  Key Concepts
                                                                  Linear Regression

                                                                  Question 9c

                                                                  Marks: 3
                                                                  c)
                                                                  By substituting for into the answer for part (b), find a model for t and n in the form n equals A e to the power of c t end exponentwhere A and c are constants to be found.
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                                                                    Question 9d

                                                                    Marks: 2
                                                                    d)
                                                                    Find an estimate for the number of virus cells present after 3.5 hours, comment on the reliability of this estimate.

                                                                     

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                                                                      Question 10a

                                                                      Marks: 5

                                                                      Olivia is modelling a new bowl for her pottery shop. She models the outline of one side of the bowl on a 2D Cartesian coordinate grid and plans to rotate the design 360° about the y- axis.
                                                                      The coordinates Olivia uses to plot the cross-section are given in the table below.  

                                                                      Point

                                                                      A

                                                                      B

                                                                      C

                                                                      D

                                                                      E

                                                                      F

                                                                      G

                                                                      H

                                                                      I

                                                                      x

                                                                      5

                                                                      6

                                                                      8

                                                                      10

                                                                      12

                                                                      14

                                                                      16

                                                                      18

                                                                      18

                                                                      y

                                                                      0

                                                                      2

                                                                      4

                                                                      5

                                                                      6

                                                                      6

                                                                      8

                                                                      10

                                                                      12

                                                                       

                                                                      Point A is connected to the origin and point is connected to the point open parentheses 0 comma 12 close parentheses with a straight, horizontal line.

                                                                      a)
                                                                      Olivia initially models all of the points using a cubic curve.
                                                                      (i)
                                                                      Find the equation of the least squares regression cubic curve for all nine points.
                                                                      (ii)
                                                                      Find the coefficient of determination for the cubic model.
                                                                      (iii)
                                                                      Explain why this model is not a good model for all of the points and state which points Olivia should use a different model for. Use mathematical reasoning to validate your argument.
                                                                        Assess your score
                                                                          

                                                                        Question 10b

                                                                        Marks: 3
                                                                        b)
                                                                        Olivia decides instead to use two different linear models between points A and C and C and E and then use a quadratic model to connect points E, F, G, H and I. Find the equation of this quadratic model and write down a problem with using this model instead.
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                                                                          Question 10c

                                                                          Marks: 1
                                                                          c)
                                                                          State which model Olivia should use and any limitations to this model.
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