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Date May 2016 Marks available 3 Reference code 16M.2.hl.TZ2.6
Level HL only Paper 2 Time zone TZ2
Command term Find Question number 6 Adapted from N/A

Question

A company produces rectangular sheets of glass of area 5 square metres. During manufacturing these glass sheets flaws occur at the rate of 0.5 per 5 square metres. It is assumed that the number of flaws per glass sheet follows a Poisson distribution.

Glass sheets with no flaws earn a profit of $5. Glass sheets with at least one flaw incur a loss of $3.

This company also produces larger glass sheets of area 20 square metres. The rate of occurrence of flaws remains at 0.5 per 5 square metres.

A larger glass sheet is chosen at random.

Find the probability that a randomly chosen glass sheet contains at least one flaw.

[3]
a.

Find the expected profit, P dollars, per glass sheet.

[3]
b.

Find the probability that it contains no flaws.

[2]
c.

Markscheme

XPo(0.5)    (A1)

P(X1)=0.393 (=1e0.5)    (M1)A1

[3 marks]

a.

P(X=0)=0.607    (A1)

E(P)=(0.607×5)(0.393×3)    (M1)

the expected profit is $1.85 per glass sheet     A1

[3 marks]

b.

YPo(2)    (M1)

P(Y=0)=0.135 (=e2)    A1

[2 marks]

c.

Examiners report

Part (a) was reasonably well done. Some candidates calculated P(X=1).

a.

Part (b) was not as well done as expected with a surprising number of candidates calculating 5P(X=0)+3P(X1) rather than 5P(X=0)3P(X1).

b.

Part (c) was very well done.

c.

Syllabus sections

Topic 5 - Core: Statistics and probability » 5.6 » Binomial distribution, its mean and variance.
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