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Date November 2021 Marks available 2 Reference code 21N.1.SL.TZ0.4
Level SL Paper 1 Time zone no time zone
Command term Outline Question number 4 Adapted from N/A

Question

Artificial intelligence (AI) predicts earthquakes

Scientists at universities are developing a machine learning system to detect the warning signs that an earthquake is likely to occur. Using pattern-recognition algorithms similar to those in image and speech recognition, the system would be able to predict earthquakes a few days before they occur. Using machine learning, researchers will be able to run earthquake analysis 500 times faster than they could previously.

It is also possible to use machine learning to predict where the aftershocks* of an earthquake may occur (see Figure 4).


Figure 4: Prediction of aftershocks using machine learning

 


* aftershock: a smaller earthquake that follows a large earthquake

Identify two characteristics of pattern recognition.

[2]
a.i.

Outline one reason why it might be difficult to collect accurate data that can be used for predicting earthquakes.

[2]
a.ii.

Identify two characteristics of an algorithm.

[2]
a.iii.

Scientists used visualizations, such as in Figure 4, to present the information about predicted earthquake activity.

Analyse the decision to use visualizations.

[6]
b.

Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using machine learning to predict natural disasters like earthquakes.

[8]
c.

Markscheme

Answers may include:

 

Award [1] for each characteristic of machine learning identified up to [2].

a.i.

Answers may include:

 

Award [1] for a limitation of collecting data for predicting earthquakes and [1] for a development of that limitation up to [2].

a.ii.

Answers may include:

 

Award [1] for each characteristic of an algorithm identified up to [2].

a.iii.

Answers may include:

Advantages of visualizations:

Disadvantages of visualizations:

b.

Answers may include:

Reasons why machine learning should be used to predict natural disasters:

Reasons why machine learning should not be used to predict natural disasters:

 

In part (c) of this question it is expected there will be a balance between the terminology related to digital systems and the terminology related to social and ethical impacts.

Keywords: natural disasters, environment, data, algorithms, accuracy, reliability, change, systems, values, ethics

 

Refer to SL/HL paper 1, part c markbands when awarding marks. These can be found under the "Your tests" tab > supplemental materials > Digital society markbands and guidance document.

c.

Examiners report

[N/A]
a.i.
[N/A]
a.ii.
[N/A]
a.iii.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.

Syllabus sections

Topic 3: Content » 3.1 Data
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