Date | November 2019 | Marks available | 6 | Reference code | 19N.1.SL.TZ0.2 |
Level | SL | Paper | 1 | Time zone | no time zone |
Command term | Analyse | Question number | 2 | Adapted from | N/A |
Question
Wildfire modelling
The fire control centre in the Kinakora National Park in New Zealand often has to cope with the natural phenomenon of wildfires. Staff have been collecting data about wildfires since 1970.
The size of each wildfire is measured, and the vegetation types affected are recorded. Data on the weather conditions is collected from sensors in the park. The staff at the fire control centre use this information to fight the wildfire.
A new computer modelling system is being developed using data collected from previous wildfires. This new system will improve the quality of the information available when fighting future wildfires.
The new system will also enable staff at Kinakora National Park to send information to tourists in the park to warn them when they are in danger from a wildfire.
Identify two measurements that could be taken by the weather sensors in Kinakora National Park.
Identify two methods that could be used to train the staff to use the new computer modelling system.
Identify two methods of visualization that could be used to present information from the new computer modelling system.
Two methods for informing tourists about wildfires in Kinakora National Park are:
- short message service (SMS) texting/text messaging
- posting information on the Kinakora National Park website.
Analyse these two methods.
Evaluate Kinakora National Park’s decision to use computer modelling to develop strategies for dealing with wildfires.
Markscheme
Answers may include:
- Temperature
- Rainfall/precipitation
- Wind speed
- Wind direction
- Humidity
Award [1] for identifying each measurement up to maximum of [2].
Answers may include:
- Video tutorials
- “How to” guides
- Face-to-face training
- Online training courses
Award [1] for identifying each method that could be used to train the staff to use the new modelling system up to maximum of [2].
Answers may include:
- Charts
- Tables
- Infographics
- Diagrams
Award [1] for identifying each method of visualization up to maximum of [2].
Answers may include:
Advantages of using SMS texting:
- It is easy to use.
- Information is pushed out to the tourists.
- It is not dependent on internet access (systems).
- It is cheap.
- It is low tech / can be done from very old hardware.
- It is faster than posting information in a website / synchronous.
Disadvantages of using SMS texting:
- Tourists need phone reception to get the message.
- The national park needs all tourists’ phone numbers to ensure all tourists can access this information.
- Data needs to be stored (phone numbers), so an appropriate privacy policy needs to be in place.
- There is no guarantee the message has got through.
- Some tourists might not have their phone with them.
- Batteries can run out.
Advantages of using the Kinakora National Park website:
- The information can use graphics/maps.
- It is not necessary to collect/store tourists’ phone numbers.
Disadvantages of using the Kinakora National Park website:
- Tourists need to visit the website to get information.
- Tourists may not have web access.
- Visually impaired visitors might not get the information.
Note: Many of the advantages of SMS text are automatically disadvantages of Kinakora National Park website or vice versa.
Keywords: connectivity, change, systems, values, ethics
Answers may include:
Advantages of using computer models to develop strategies to deal with wildfires:
- Many different scenarios can be tried out before a final strategy is determined (systems).
- Dangerous situations can be simulated without the risk to human life (systems, values).
- Possible fires can be predicted, and strategies can be defined to deal with them (systems).
- The development of the model may lead to a greater understanding of the factors that influence the start and spread of forest fires; e.g., fires starting in similar circumstances may not always follow same pattern.
- Models may be revised as the nature of forest fires evolves, e.g., as a result of drier conditions, hotter summer temperatures (systems).
- Models can be used for training (systems).
Disadvantages of using computer models to develop strategies to deal with wildfires:
- The data that is being input / data must be reliable / GIGO.
- The model is a simplification of a real situation and there may be factors that it is not possible to consider (systems).
- It is expensive to develop a model / requires a large amount of processing power, and this may not be an effective use of resources.
- The conditions in the national park may evolve more quickly than the model is able to, which may lead to predictions not being as accurate as expected (systems).
In part (c) of this question it is expected there will be a balance between the terminology related to digital systems and the terminology related to social and ethical impacts.
Keywords: environment, monitoring, data, GIGO, model, modelling, simulations, algorithms, change, systems, values, ethics
Refer to SL/HL paper 1, part c markbands when awarding marks. These can be found under the "Your tests" tab > supplemental materials > Digital society markbands and guidance document.