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Date	May 2019	Marks available	8	Reference code	19M.1.SL.TZ0.2
Level	SL	Paper	1	Time zone	no time zone
Command term	Discuss	Question number	2	Adapted from	N/A

Question

Hurricane warning systems

In 2017, Hurricane Irma was a catastrophic disaster. Unfortunately, the computer models and simulations did not accurately predict its track (course) in time to warn residents in the areas affected. Accurately predicting the track of a hurricane is critical for protecting life and property.

The potential tracks that Hurricane Irma could have taken are shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Potential tracks of Hurricane Irma

The European computer model, run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, performed far better than the American model, known as the Global Forecast System. However, a new model created by the electronics company Panasonic, called PWS, performed best.

The American and European models depend on data gathered from weather balloons. Panasonic, on the other hand, creates systems that collect real-time weather data from over 3500 aircraft every day.

The PWS model resulted in accurate simulations of the track of the hurricane four to seven days in advance.

Identify two types of digital media that could be used to show the potential tracks of Hurricane Irma.

[2]

a.i.

Outline one problem that may be caused by gathering data in real time.

[2]

a.ii.

Outline why visualization is used to present data.

[2]

a.iii.

Distinguish between data and information.

[2]

b.i.

Different weather variables, such as wind speed and temperature, need to be collected in order to predict the track of a hurricane. Wind speed data is sampled more frequently than temperature data in a hurricane.

Explain one reason why wind speed data would be sampled more frequently than temperature data in a hurricane.

[2]

b.ii.

Explain why the data collected about Hurricane Irma was not encrypted prior to being transmitted.

[2]

b.iii.

Companies such as Panasonic will not make the data in computer models available to governments, as they are concerned that doing so would compromise their commercial interests.

Discuss whether governments should be able to make private companies such as Panasonic share their data.

[8]

Markscheme

Answers may include:

Video
Images
Animations

Award [1] for identifying each type of digital media that could be used to show the potential tracks of Hurricane Irma up to a maximum of [2].

a.i.

Answers may include:

Data quality/errors in collection
Will be propagated within the system, as the data is not checked for reliability/suitability.

Award [1] for identifying each problem, and [1] for a development of that problem up to a maximum of [2].

a.ii.

Answers may include:

Visualization presents the data in a form that is easily understandable, such as images and charts…
therefore, it can be presented to audiences who may not have the specialist knowledge required to understand the information in its raw form/aids the prediction of future events.

Visualization may synthesize the data…
so it can be presented in a simplified, yet understandable, manner.

Award [1] for identifying a reason why visualization is used and [1] for a development of that reason up to a maximum of [2].

a.iii.

Answers may include:

Data is facts (raw, unorganized), not contextualized.
Information is processed data (interpretable) / a context has been added to the data.

Award [1] for a definition of either data or information and [1] for a definition of both up to a maximum of [2].

b.i.

Answers may include:

The faster a variable such as wind changes…
the more frequently it must be sampled.

Wind speed is the critical and rapidly changing variable in the hurricane…
therefore, it needs to be sampled as regularly as possible to be able to monitor the possible trends.

Sampling the wind speed frequently…
enables the track of the hurricane and its effects to be predicted more accurately.

Temperature data does not change as rapidly as wind speed…
therefore, the sample rate can be lower.

Award [1] for identifying each reason why wind speed data would be sampled more frequently than temperature data in a hurricane and [1] for a development of that reason up to a maximum of [2].

b.ii.

Answers may include:

The data being collected is not sensitive in nature…
therefore, there is no need to encrypt the data, as a data breach would not cause an issue.

As data encryption is not a necessary measure…
the IT requirements to ensure the transmission of data are reduced, so resources can be allocated elsewhere.

Not encrypting / decrypting the data will speed up processing…
in a time-critical scenario.

Not encrypting the data makes it immediately available to the wider scientific community…
which allows them to improve their hurricane models.

Award [1] for identifying a reason why the data being collected about the hurricane does not need to be encrypted and [1] for a development of that reason up to a maximum of [2].

b.iii.

Answers may include:

It is acceptable for governments to make private companies such as Panasonic share their data:

With its PWS, Panasonic has proved better than the American and European models at predicting the path of Hurricane Irma, so Panasonic should share its data/knowledge/algorithms, not only to help the government, but also to help people, rather than keeping vital information private and confidential (acting ethically).
Hurricanes may have devastating (environmental) consequences for people and property, so in such a situation of crisis, the government should have the power and the right to access any data, even private data, that can save life (the greater good).
There is no issue of individual/personal privacy or confidentiality, so this is not a case where the government would infringe on people’s rights or liberty (the greater good).

It is not acceptable for governments to make private companies such as Panasonic share their data:

Panasonic has invested a lot of money and other resources (such as engineers’ time) to develop its PWS model, so it is not fair towards the owners, shareholders and even workers that suddenly the government gets access (ownership) for free to all the data collected by Panasonic.
If governments believe they should use data from aircraft and similar sources, like Panasonic, they should develop such programmes of weather predictions, rather than relying on weather balloons.
As a principle, governments should respect (values) the private nature of data (and its ownership) that belongs to independent companies, otherwise this could open the gate to many other cases in scientific research (e.g., with pharmaceutical drugs) where governments overstep their boundaries and their rights.
If the data from the company is incorrect and there are serious repercussions as a result, who is accountable?

In part (c) of this question it is expected there will be a balance between the terminology related to digital systems and the terminology related to social and ethical impacts.

Keywords: laws, environment, knowledge, data, sharing, algorithms, ownership, accountability, change, power, systems, ethics, values

Refer to SL/HL paper 1, part c markbands when awarding marks. These can be found under the "Your tests" tab > supplemental materials > Digital society markbands and guidance document.