| Date | November 2021 | Marks available | 1 | Reference code | 21N.2.SL.TZ0.3 |
| Level | Standard Level | Paper | Paper 2 | Time zone | Time zone 0 |
| Command term | Outline | Question number | 3 | Adapted from | N/A |
Question
Figure 3(a): World population figures 1950–2019 and predictions 2020–2100
[Source: United Nations, 2019. World Population Prospects 2019. [image online] Available at:
https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/900 © 2019 United Nations, DESA, Population
Division. Licensed under Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO.
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ United Nations, DESA, Population Division. World Population
Prospects 2019. https://population.un.org//wpp/ [Accessed 22 May 2020]. Source adapted.]
Figure 3(b): Countries and regions where population decreased
by at least one per cent between 2010 and 2019
[Source: United Nations, 2019. World Population Prospects 2019 Highlights. [PDF online] Available at:
https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf. Copyright © 2019 by United Nations,
made available under a Creative Commons license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo [Accessed 29 September 2020]. Source adapted.]
Using Figure 3(a), identify the year in which the median prediction of the world population will reach 10 billion.
Outline one reason for the uncertainty in predicting the world’s population in Figure 3(a).
Using Figure 3(b), identify the region that has the most countries with a decrease in the percentage change in population between 2010 and 2019.
Outline two factors that could contribute to a reduction in population in the countries in Figure 3(b).
Discuss how a country’s stage in the demographic transition model (DTM) might influence its national population policy.
Markscheme
2055;
- different models/scenarios/fertility rates might use different figures in their calculations;
- difficult to determine how the demographic policies of countries might change;
- factors outside our control e.g. disaster / disease / war;
Note: Do not credit vague statements about prediction being difficult. They should identify at least one specific factor that makes it difficult. (NB Migration is irrelevant because this is global population.)
Europe and Northern America;
- increasing emigration due to war/natural disaster;
- increasing emigration due to few job opportunities;
- increasing deaths due to war/natural disaster/aging population;
- high number of women in the workforce / high level of education of women decreases fertility;
- access to contraception/family planning decreases fertility;
- advanced healthcare decreases fertility;
- a country’s anti-natalist population policy decreases fertility;
Note: Accept any valid factor appropriately linked to low or decreasing fertility/high or increasing mortality/emigration.
General statement: The DTM can...
- help a country to predict its future population growth based on current demographics / identify whether birth/fertility/mortality rates are increasing/decreasing / suggest appropriate policy to redress unwanted change;
If in stages 1/2 it might implement programmes to improve living standards such as: - improve health care access/facilities;
- vaccination policy to reduce child mortality;
- invest in campaigns/education informing people on hygienic measures;
- fight poverty / improve economic development;
- ask for international medical/economic aid;
If in stages 2/3 it might implement programmes to slow population growth / achieve population stability such as: - anti-immigration policies;
- policies that increase the empowerment/independence of women / raise minimum legal age of marriage;
- increase access to contraception/sex education;
- support family planning programs (governmental or by NGOs);
- put a limit in number of children per family (one-child policy);
If in stages 4/5 it might implement programmes to increase population growth / stop population decline, such as: - pro-immigration policy;
- economic incentives for additional children / e.g. baby bonuses / family allowances / tax deductions;
- social incentives for larger families, / e.g. maternal and paternal leaves, flexible work schedules, public office for parents of more than 3 children, free schooling/nursing;
Counterargument: - other factors than DTM may be more significant e.g. cultural/religious/economic/political factors;
Note: Responses must be linked to some aspect of the DTM to gain credit (i.e. the stage, or prevailing DR/BR).
Examiners report
Very well answered.
Majority were able to identify one reason for uncertainty in population projections.
Majority were able to identify the relevant region.
Majority were able to suggest valid reasons for reduction in population.
Many were able to gain some credit in explaining link between DTM and population policies but few were able to gain full credit.
