| Date | May 2017 | Marks available | 3 | Reference code | 17M.1.SL.TZ0.6 |
| Level | Standard Level | Paper | Paper 1 | Time zone | Time zone 0 |
| Command term | Suggest | Question number | 6 | Adapted from | N/A |
Question
Figure 5(b): Age-gender pyramid for Brazil, 2014
From the shape of the age-gender pyramid in the resource booklet, Figure 5(b), suggest how the population in Brazil is likely to change in the next 30 years.
Markscheme
initially the population will continue to grow rapidly;
…because there are still a significant number entering child-bearing age;
however, because the base of pyramid is decreasing/there are fewer children;
…this suggests fewer will be entering fertile bracket in future;
…lower birth rate;
…which will lead to slower growth rate;
…fertility rates may fall below replacement levels / reduction in fertility rates;
increasing proportion of higher age / in future an aging population (over 65 years old);
…the average age of the population will increase / higher median age of population;
…will lead to a larger senior dependency ratio;
a greater number of people in working age group (16–65 years old);
…compared to children (0–16 years old) will improve dependency ratio;
Brazil is at stage 3 and is moving to stage 4;
…will lead to a more stable population / equal proportion in each age group / birth rates
are equal to death rates.
Accept any other reasonable suggestions.
[3 max]
Examiners report
Most candidates achieved some marks for this question, with many achieving full marks. A common error was only to describe the illustrated age-gender pyramid and not suggest how it may change in the next 30 years. Many recognised that over the years it would become an aging population with a decrease in birth rate. Few students recognised that Brazil is currently at stage 3 and moving to stage 4 of the demographic transition model or that the growth rate would decrease, although the overall population would initially continue to rise.
