“Falling fertility rates are no guarantee of reduced resource consumption.” Discuss this statement, referring to examples.

There are many possible approaches to this question, and each should be marked on its merits.

It would be expected that responses show a clear understanding of fertility rates. This can be defined, stated or implied. It would also be expected that most responses agree with the statement. Even though fertility rates are falling (global fertility is 2.5 in 2013), population momentum and increased longevity mean populations are still growing significantly in most regions. Many Sub-Saharan nations still have predicted doubling times of less than 30 years (eg Ethiopia), despite falling fertility. So falling fertility does not immediately equate with fewer people consuming fewer resources.

There should also be some understanding that when fertility does fall it is generally as a result of, or goes hand in hand with, increases in the standard of living. In the present development paradigm this is associated with increased consumption of resources. Falling fertility is thus often accompanied by an increase in a country or region’s ecological footprint.

There are some obvious long-term benefits of falling fertility such as the need for smaller houses, possibly resulting in less pressure on resources and space. Responses could also look at some of the issues related to fertility rates falling below replacement level but their answer must be in relation to how this impacts upon resource consumption.

Responses should make use of examples but responses that focus on describing population policies in some nations and not the consequences of falling fertility rates on resource consumption in that country will be self-limiting as this is not the question.

For band D expect some description of costs and benefits of falling fertility rates on resource consumption. This need not be balanced.

For band E expect some explanation of costs and benefits of falling fertility rates on resource consumption and there should be some attempt at an evaluation of the statement.

For band F expect some explanation of costs and benefits of falling fertility rates on resource consumption and there should be some attempt at an evaluation of the statement, with effective use of examples.

Marks should be allocated according to the markbands.