| Date | May 2013 | Marks available | 1 | Reference code | 13M.1.bp.1 |
| Level | SL and HL | Paper | 1 | Time zone | |
| Command term | State | Question number | 1 | Adapted from | N/A |
Question
Define Crude Birth Rate.
Estimate the rate of natural increase in 2010.
State the year in which the natural increase rate is projected to become negative.
Explain the meaning of the term population projection.
Suggest two reasons why governments need population projections.
Markscheme
Births [1 mark] per 1000 of population [1 mark] per year.
1.5 [1 mark] % [1 mark] (allow 1.4 or 1.6)
or
15 [1 mark] per 1000 [1 mark] (allow 14 or 16)
Any year between 2050–2055 [1 mark]
A prediction/estimate of future populations [1 mark] based on current/past demographic trends (more needed than just BR and DR) [1 mark] such as population structure and rates of fertility, mortality and immigration.
Award [1+1 marks] for each valid reason, provided that it is developed by means of explanation and/or detail.
Possibilities could include:
- ability to estimate future state revenue from taxes/size of future working population
- size of potential armed forces/age and sex ratio of future population
- allocation of services in the future/eg elderly care for ageing population
- need to apply or modify anti or pro natal policies/if population shrinking or growing too large
- change of migration policies/if economically active population is shrinking
- need to provide more future employment opportunities.
Examiners report
Some variation here from perfect definitions to very poor knowledge and understanding. A number of candidates referred to per 1000/women, and a significant number defined the crude death rate.
The majority of candidates got the figure correct but many neglected to include units – per 1000 or %.
Most candidates were able to achieve this mark.
Most mentioned future/estimate but were less confident on how this was achieved through projected demographic trends based on such variables as present age–sex structure, rates of fertility, mortality and migration.
Many candidates struggled to come up with two distinct reasons. Many also rolled their answer into one paragraph and it was difficult for the examiner to distinguish between the two separate reasons. There were also some excellent responses that clearly tackled the question.
