Outline what total fertility rate measures.

Describe the trends shown on the graph.

Suggest two reasons for the change to the total fertility rate in Asia.

1. 

2.

Explain the difference between a population projection and population momentum.

The only acceptable response is:
The average number of children [1] a woman has during her child-bearing years/in her lifetime [1].

Award [1] for stating that all areas experience a decline in fertility rate.
Award a further [1] each for any two valid and distinct statements, with quantification necessary for the final [1].

Possibilities could include:
• Africa, Asia and Latin America have had the largest decline, example of quantification a drop of between 2 and 3.2 children on average
• North America, Europe and Oceania have had the smallest decline
• regions that had an already small total fertility rate have experienced the smallest decline / or vice versa
• two regions have declined below replacement level fertility.

This region has experienced the largest drop in total fertility rate from 5.4 to 2.2: a drop of 3.2.

Award [1+1] for each valid reason, provided that it is developed by means of explanation and/or detail.

For example: Improved health care means infant mortality rates/child mortality rates have fallen in these regions [1] therefore fewer replacement children needed [1].

Other possibilities could include:
• anti-natal policies within the region
• increases in the standard of living
• urbanization – city dwellers tend to choose smaller family size
• women entering the workplace
• increased access to family planning
• later marriages
• education of women.

Population projection is an estimate/prediction of a future population [1].

Population momentum refers to population growth/decline which continues despite fertility rates falling/increasing [1].

On the whole there were sound outlines from most candidates.

This question was very well done with the majority of candidates achieving full marks. Weak responses tended to ignore the trend over time, focusing instead on the spatial pattern in one particular year or forgetting to include some quantification when describing the trends.

Strong responses here with candidates often mentioning the fact that China’s anti-natalist policy will have impacted upon Asia’s figures during this time period or that the region has undergone rapid urbanization within this timeframe, reducing the desire for large families. Generally some very impressive answers.

This was straightforward for the majority of candidates but a surprising number got zero for this considering these are definitions in the guide. On the whole, explaining momentum was more of a struggle than projection