Describe what is meant by old-age dependency ratio.

Identify which country on the graph is predicted to have the fastest growth in old-age dependency between 2010 and 2050.

Explain two reasons why the population is ageing in the five countries shown.

Suggest two reasons why men have a lower life expectancy than women in most countries.

It is the ratio of the number of individuals over 64 (allow 60 or 65 as well) [1] to the number of people of working age / the number of economically active individuals [1].

China

Explained reasons must address why the percentage of elderly is increasing in relation to other age groups.

Award [1+1] for each valid and distinct reason, provided that it is developed by means of explanation, exemplification and/or detail.

For example: Improved medical care [1], diseases linked to longevity treated, allowing increased life expectancy [1].

Possibilities include:

• falling fertility/decline in younger cohorts
• improved nutrition and diet/healthier lives.

Award [1] for each valid and distinct reason, and [1] for development and/or exemplification.

For example: Men tend to practise/engage in more risky occupations (civilian) [1] eg mining, construction, thereby increasing their mortality rate [1].

Other possibilities include:

• most armed forces mainly men/combat increases mortality
• high-risk behaviour/lifestyle choices (smoking, drinking, diet)
• biological/physiological make-up of men compared to women
• crime related factors.

It is important that the two factors are distinct and NOT a similar reason developed twice.

Most candidates were able to define the ratio and used the relevant age ranges but there were a few responses that incorrectly stated that it was the ratio of elderly to the rest of the population; they needed to state to the economically active age groups.

It was quite rare to see a candidate get this right; the majority responded with Japan, which was odd as the answer is clearly China – it triples to Japan’s doubling.

On the whole this was well answered with candidates clearly explaining factors that resulted in the percentage of elderly in a nation increasing. Each factor obviously needed to be valid to the five nations in the graph: either a reason for fertility falling, reducing the proportion of young cohorts, or the many possible reasons for life expectancies increasing across the five regions. The ageing of the “baby boomer” population was also accepted, along with the impact that anti-natal policies could have had on fertility. Explanations did not always stress the reasons for the increase in proportion of elderly in relation to the other age groups and this limited the development needed for the second mark.

There were plenty of good academic responses with clear exemplification related to risky jobs, lifestyle choices such as drinking and smoking, health worker visits, military conscription, and valid biological reasons. However, many answers were superficial and often just incorrect: sexist statements such as “men are more stressed as they have to look after the family whilst the wife just stays at home and looks after the kids” were obviously not credited.