User interface language: English | Español

Date November 2016 Marks available 2 Reference code 16N.3sp.hl.TZ0.1
Level HL only Paper Paper 3 Statistics and probability Time zone TZ0
Command term Find Question number 1 Adapted from N/A

Question

In this question you may assume that these data are a random sample from a bivariate normal distribution, with population product moment correlation coefficient ρ.

Richard wishes to do some research on two types of exams which are taken by a large number of students. He takes a random sample of the results of 10 students, which are shown in the following table.

N16/5/MATHL/HP3/ENG/TZ0/SP/01

Using these data, it is decided to test, at the 1% level, the null hypothesis H0:ρ=0 against the alternative hypothesis H1:ρ>0.

Richard decides to take the exams himself. He scored 11 on Exam 1 but his result on Exam 2 was lost.

Caroline believes that the population mean mark on Exam 2 is 6 marks higher than the population mean mark on Exam 1. Using the original data from the 10 students, it is decided to test, at the 5% level, this hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis that the mean of the differences, d=exam 2 mark  exam 1 mark, is less than 6 marks.

For these data find the product moment correlation coefficient, r.

[2]
a.

(i)     State the distribution of the test statistic (including any parameters).

(ii)     Find the p-value for the test.

(iii)     State the conclusion, in the context of the question, with the word “correlation” in your answer. Justify your answer.

[6]
b.

Using a suitable regression line, find an estimate for his score on Exam 2, giving your answer to the nearest integer.

[3]
c.

(i)     State the distribution of your test statistic (including any parameters).

(ii)     Find the p-value.

(iii)     State the conclusion, justifying the answer.

[6]
d.

Markscheme

r=0.804    A2

 

Note: Accept any number that rounds to 0.80.

 

[2 marks]

a.

(i)     t distribution with 8 degrees of freedom     A1A1

(ii)     p - value=0.00254     A2

 

Notes: Accept any number that rounds to 0.0025.

Award A1 for 2-tail test giving an answer that rounds to 0.0051.

 

(iii)     p - value<0.01, so conclude that there is positive correlation     R1A1

 

Notes: Only award the A1 if the R1 is awarded.

Do not accept just “reject H0” or “accept H1”.

The words “positive correlation” must be seen.

 

[6 marks]

b.

regression line of y (Exam 2 mark) on x (Exam 1 mark) is     (M1)

y=0.59407x+21.387    (A1)

x=11 gives y=28 (to nearest integer)     A1

[3 marks]

c.

(i)     applying the t test to the differences

t distribution with 9 degrees of freedom     A1A1

(ii)     p - value=0.239     A2

 

Notes: Accept any number that rounds to 0.24.

Award A1 if subtraction done the wrong way round giving p - value=0.109.

 

(iii)     p - value>0.05, so accept H0 or ud=6     R1A1

[6 marks]

d.

Examiners report

[N/A]
a.
[N/A]
b.
[N/A]
c.
[N/A]
d.

Syllabus sections

Topic 7 - Option: Statistics and probability » 7.7
Show 24 related questions

View options