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Date May 2012 Marks available 6 Reference code 12M.3sp.hl.TZ0.5
Level HL only Paper Paper 3 Statistics and probability Time zone TZ0
Command term Hence and Show that Question number 5 Adapted from N/A

Question

The random variable \(X \sim {\text{Po}}(m)\). Given that P(X = k −1) = P(X = k +1), where k is a positive integer,

show that \({m^2} = k(k + 1)\);

[2]
a.

hence show that the mode of X is k .

[6]
b.

Markscheme

\(\frac{{{m^{k - 1}}{e^{ - m}}}}{{(k - 1)!}} = \frac{{{m^{k + 1}}{e^{ - m}}}}{{(k + 1)!}}\)     M1

\( \Rightarrow 1 = \frac{{{m^2}}}{{(k + 1)k}}\)     A1 

Note: Award A1 for any correct intermediate step.

 

\( \Rightarrow {m^2} = (k + 1)k\)     AG

[2 marks]

a.

\(\frac{{{\text{P}}(X = k)}}{{{\text{P}}(X = k - 1)}} = \frac{{{e^{ - m}} \times \frac{{{m^k}}}{{k!}}}}{{{e^{ - m}} \times \frac{{{m^{k - 1}}}}{{(k - 1)!}}}}\)     M1

\( = \frac{m}{k}\)     A1

\( = \frac{{\sqrt {k(k + 1)} }}{k}\)     M1

\( = \sqrt {\frac{{k + 1}}{k}}  > 1\)     R1

so \({\text{P}}(X = k) > {\text{P}}(X = k - 1)\)     R1

similarly \({\text{P}}(X = k) > {\text{P}}(X = k + 1)\)     R1

hence k is the mode     AG

[6 marks]

b.

Examiners report

Most candidates were able to complete part (a). The remainder of the question involved some understanding of the shape of the distribution and some facility with algebraic manipulation.

a.

Most candidates were able to complete part (a). The remainder of the question involved some understanding of the shape of the distribution and some facility with algebraic manipulation.

b.

Syllabus sections

Topic 5 - Core: Statistics and probability » 5.6 » Poisson distribution, its mean and variance.
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