Outline what is meant by the term “drought”.

Briefly describe one physical cause of a located severe drought.

Suggest two reasons why individuals and communities may underestimate the probability of a severe drought occurring in the region in which they live.

Discuss the reasons why some low-income countries may be more vulnerable than others to the effects of hazard events.

Drought: a period of lower than expected rainfall [1]

And some development such as:

• over an extended period of time (usually for a season or more) [1]
• may recognize different types of drought from various parts of the world [1].

Reasons for lower than expected rainfall include: anticyclonic conditions; El Niño/La Niña; jet stream movements; North Atlantic Oscillation.

For example: Drought in Australia (2000s) [1] was caused by an El Niño event / bringing high pressure/anticyclonic conditions [1].

Maximum [1] if not a located drought.

Possible reasons include:

• lack of perception/knowledge, because they recently moved into an area during a period of higher rainfall, or there had not been a drought within living memory
• unreliable or lack of historical climatic data, so unable to estimate the statistical probability of a drought event
• the probability of a drought might be underestimated, especially if there had been a long period of higher rainfall
• people have adapted their lifestyles to the possibility of low magnitude drought, but are unprepared for a severe drought of long duration
• people believe that they are well-prepared for a drought and that they will not be affected by a drought event
• climate change is changing the rainfall and evaporation patterns, making drought even more unpredictable and probability unknown.

Award [3] for each developed reason.

For example: People may have a lack of knowledge of previous droughts [1] because there has not been a major drought within living memory [1] so they are unaware of the return period/recurrence interval [1].

Hazard events discussed may be natural and/or human-induced hazards.

Demographic, social and economic factors affect a country’s initial vulnerability and subsequent ability to deal with the consequences and after-effects of hazard events. Geographical position may also affect the vulnerability of some low-income countries:

• location on active plate margins (vulnerability to tectonic hazards)
• tropical coastal areas (exposure to frequent hurricanes)
• desert margins (frequency of drought).

Population characteristics, such as high densities and growth rates, mean that the numbers of people exposed to hazards is high and increasing rapidly. Socio-economic factors, such as poor/weak infrastructure, lack of medical
facilities, lack of information and knowledge and low economic resources, will affect a country’s vulnerability and ability to deal with hazard events.

Good answers may discuss how some low-income countries are especially vulnerable to multiple types of hazard event, and not just one type. Another approach might be to discuss different aspects of vulnerability (ability to make use of forecasting, planning and education; costs of improvements to buildings and infrastructure; post-event recovery).

If the response interprets “more vulnerable than others” as a high-income country, then award maximum band D.

At band D, expect a description of how one or more hazard events have affected vulnerable low-income countries.

At band E, expect either a more detailed explanation of a range of hazards/vulnerable countries or a structured discussion of the statement.

At band F, expect both of these elements.

Marks should be allocated according to the markbands.