(i) Describe what is meant by the term “drought”.

(ii) Outline one climatic reason for the occurrence of one named drought.

Referring to either earthquakes or volcanoes, explain three reasons why fewer deaths are caused by these hazards than in the past.

Using located examples, examine why the intensity of hurricanes varies over time.

(i)

Lower than expected/average rainfall [1]

Plus a development [1] such as:

• for an extended period of time
• or may distinguish between meteorological/agricultural/hydrological drought.

(ii)

Award [1] for detail of why low rainfall occurs, and a further [1] for appropriate named location.

Possible reasons: anticyclone / air mass movements; ENSO/El Niño/La Niña cycles; jet stream movements; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate change.

For example: California [1], ENSO cycles [1].
El Niño [1] has caused droughts in East Africa/Ethiopia [1].

In each case, award [1] for a basic reason why fewer lives are being lost to natural hazards than in the past and [1] for some further development using applied knowledge of earthquake or volcanic hazards.

For example:

• improved monitoring / short-term prediction [1] and may develop / provide examples [1]
• education / drills [1] and may develop / provide examples [1]
• greater knowledge of plate boundaries and where risks are present [1] and may develop / provide examples [1]
• land-use zoning [1] and may develop / provide examples [1]
• community preparedness eg emergency kits [1] and may develop / provide examples [1].

For example: People in Iceland are aware of the dangers of volcanoes [1], keep emergency supplies in their houses [1].

Possible arguments include:

• during the passage of a hurricane, wind speed varies over time
• different hurricanes follow different tracks / make landfall in different areas
• variable hurricane strengths within a single season, perhaps linked to latitude, temperature and depth of water
• climate change could bring long-term increase in temperature of atmosphere and ocean.

Good answers are likely to conceptualize “intensity” in varying ways (different events or different phases of the same event), or may adopt different time scales as part of their answer (hurricane strength varies within a single season but there could be a long-term increase in intensity linked with climate change). Credit answers that look at spatial variations as well as temporal variations.

At band D responses are likely to describe some reasons for the differences in the strength of different hurricanes over time.

At band E, expect either more detail / range of reasons with located examples, for the varying intensity of different located hurricanes or some discussion of what “over time” means (eg seasonal or long term)

At band F, expect both.

Marks should be allocated according to the markbands.

(i)

There was often a poor understanding of the term drought, many simply stating a lack of rain.

(ii)

Many referred to a specific drought – e.g. Ethiopia 2015 and some were able to relate it to climatic factors, such as El Niño. However, named droughts were sometimes vague, as were the climatic reasons for the drought.

There were some very good responses and this was generally well answered. Weaker candidates gave basic reasons and these were not sufficiently developed for full marks. There was some misconception among candidates regarding the effectiveness of earthquake prediction.

This question posed some difficulties. Many candidates were unable to understand why intensity varied over time; this could be temporal or spatial; seasonal or long term (global warming). There was limited understanding of the processes involved in hurricane development. Some considered the example of a particular storm, showing how it varied in intensity as it passed over warmer seas and declined over land; others related changes to seasonal variations and climate change. Some confused intensity with varied impacts of hurricanes.