Explain two reasons for the increase in the numbers of people affected by disasters in recent years.

Examine the importance of re-assessing risk and re-examining vulnerability following any major hazard event.

Possibilities include:

• more/more intense hurricanes, possibly due to climate change and warmer oceans
• increase in number/magnitude of earthquakes
• population increase and/or urbanization; more people living in hazard-prone urban areas; poor quality housing
• increase in conflicts and wars, resulting in more deaths from droughts, famine and disease.

In each case, award [1] for each valid reason and [2] for further development and/or exemplification.

For example: There has been an increase in the number and magnitude of hurricanes in recent years [1]; this may be due to global warming and higher ocean temperatures [1], leading to greater impact on low-lying coastal populations [1].

Risk refers to the probability of a hazard event causing harmful consequences. Vulnerability is the potential for environmental and economic damage, injury and loss of life in hazard-prone areas.

Following a major hazard event, it is important to re-assess risk and re-examine vulnerability in order to plan and reduce significant impacts associated with future events. This allows for possible hazard-reduction measures, such as engineering works and improvements in building design. Also important is reducing economic and social vulnerability by measures such as poverty reduction, improvements in infrastructure and health care and possibly re-locating vulnerable populations.

Good answers should show an understanding of risk and vulnerability and the importance of re-assessing these and planning for future hazard-reduction strategies. Candidates should argue which of the two factors is most important and recognize the difficulties in implementing strategies.

At band D expect a description of risk and vulnerability with reference to a hazard event and possible ways of their reduction.

At band E, expect either a more detailed explanation of the importance of risk/vulnerability assessment and how these might result in the reduction of the impact of future hazard events, or an examination of their relative importance and understanding shown of the difficulties of implementing such hazard-reduction measures.

At band F, expect both.

Marks should be allocated according to the Paper 2 markbands (available under the "Your tests" tab > supplemental materials).