“Global climate change will reduce economic disparities.” Discuss this statement.

Refer to Paper 1 Section B markbands (available under the "Your tests" tab > supplemental materials) when marking this question.

Responses need to address the actual and potential impacts of climate change. These could be negative, such as rising sea levels and more extreme weather events, positive, such as increased growing seasons, or unknown, such as possible changing rainfall patterns.

Most responses are likely to disagree with the statement, as it is the developing world that is and will bear the brunt of the negative effects of climate change. Low-income nations tend to have a large percentage of their populations involved in agriculture and are hence dependent on rainfall and growing seasons for their livelihoods and food – characteristics that are impacted by extreme events and regional climate change. A large number of low-income countries have an element of subsistence agriculture as part of their economy. Many of these communities will lack the resilience needed to adapt to the vagaries of a changing climate. There are very few developing nations that have a geographical location that will benefit from longer growing seasons. Indeed many of the low-income countries are in locations that will be adversely impacted by climate change. Climate change can to lead to conflict over diminished resources which can lead to further impoverishment.

Climate change can also increase disparities at a national and regional scale. In the USA although large areas of the south will suffer economically and socially from heatwaves, storms and failing crops parts of New England and the Pacific north-west will do comparatively well, with balmier conditions reducing deaths from the winter cold and some crops responding well to warmer temperatures.

Many developing nations will lack the capital to use technological fixes to deal with changes such as rising sea levels, extreme weather or reduced/increased rainfall. Environmental refugees whose plight has been linked to climate change are mainly from low-income nations, eg Somalis to Kenya, Pacific islanders to New Zealand. In many cases the burden of hosting these refugees also mainly falls on low-income nations. Most of these nations are also not responsible for the anthropogenic contributions to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Stronger responses may argue that many of the impacts of climate change are still unknown, as it is an evolving issue – and so this question is quite difficult to answer. They may also argue that the economies of the developed world may be impacted upon by climate change, causing an economic slowdown in these regions, which in turn which could help reduce disparities between themselves and low-income nations. Another approach might be to discuss impacts at different geographic scales. This approach may recognize that some regions that are poorer at present may gain from improved climate – warmer summers in the UK may encourage tourism in the poorer seaside towns of eastern England

At band D, expect responses to describe how climate change may impact upon global disparities.

For band E, expect detailed explanation of a range of ways in which disparities are affected or some discussion of the net impact of climate change on different economic disparities.

For band F, expect both.

Marks should be allocated according to the Paper 1 section B markbands.