| Date | May 2018 | Marks available | 2 | Reference code | 18M.1.bp.1 |
| Level | SL and HL | Paper | 1 | Time zone | |
| Command term | Outline | Question number | 1 | Adapted from | N/A |
Question
Populations in transition
The graph shows the actual dependency ratios for 2010 and the predicted dependency ratios for 2050 for a selection of countries.
[Source: Graph adapted from Attitudes about ageing: A global perspective, Pew Research Center, Washington, D.C. January 30 2014, http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/01/30/chapter-2-aging-in-the-u-s-and-other-countries-2010-to-2050/. Pew Research Center bears no responsibility for the analyses or interpretations of the data presented here. The opinions expressed herein, including any implications for policy, are those of the author and not of Pew Research Center. Data adapted from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Volume II, Demographic Profiles (ST/ESA/SER.A/345).]
Outline how a country’s dependency ratio is calculated.
Describe two predicted regional trends shown on the graph.
Suggest one reason for the predicted change in Nigeria’s dependency ratio.
Suggest one positive and two negative socio-economic impacts of an aging population for one named country.
Named country:
Positive impact:
Negative impact 1:
Negative impact 2:
Markscheme
Young dependent + old dependent / independent population or economically active or working population [1]
Young dependent (0–14,15,16) + old dependent (64,65,66+) / independent population or economically active or working population (15–64) [2]
Must have regional context that only reflects the continental grouping of the countries to be awarded marks.
African nations are predicted to have fewer dependents [1].
European nations are predicted to have more dependents [1].
Must have quantification exemplifying this for award of full marks. If no data then award a maximum of [1].
Award [1] for a valid, distinct reason for decline of dependency ratio and [1] for additional explanation and/or detail that explains decline in dependency ratio.
For example: Fertility rates/birth rates in Nigeria are predicted to fall [1], reducing the proportion of young dependents in relation to the working age population [1].
Other possibilities include:
- population momentum / large youthful population moving into economically active age group
- in-migration of working-age people.
In each case, award [1] for each valid positive/negative socio-economic impact related to the named country, and [1] for further development by means of explanation or detail.
Award a maximum of [3] if no named country is given and linked to the impacts.
An aging population is one with high/increasing proportion aged over 65. Impacts may be current or long term.
For example (positive): Grandparent(s) can take care of children [1] so that parents do not have to pay for childcare [1].
For example (negative): Costs of providing elderly care [1] may be a large burden for taxpayers [1].
Other possibilities include:
Positive
- Economy has access to more experienced employees.
- Less money spent on schooling and natal medical care.
- Lower crime rates and less money needed to be spent on policing.
- Grey economy.
Negative
- Smaller work force.
- Reduced taxation income.
- Elderly tend to get sick more frequently.
- Reduced spending on education, policing, transport network, etc.
- Cost of paying for pensions.
- Service decline (schools, sports centres, etc not used by older residents).
- 4:2:1 ratio of dependency.
- Reduced productivity.
- Increased age dependency ratio.
- Lack of a young workforce that has more innovative minds and a better grasp of modern technology.
