Describe the trends in numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs) between 1990 and 2010 as shown on the graph.

State the key factor that determines whether a forced migrant is a refugee or an internally displaced person (IDP).

Suggest one political and one environmental cause of the rapid increase in the total number of forced migrants since 2011.

Political:

Environmental:

State two incentives used in a recent pro-natalist national policy.

Country name:

Incentive 1:

Incentive 2:

Explain why these incentives were introduced in the country you named in (d)(i).

Three valid descriptions are needed and there must be some reference to data for full marks.

Possibilities could include:

• increase 1990–94 (22 to 28 million) 
• decrease 1994–97 (28 to 17 million)
• stable/slow increase/fluctuating 1997–2010
• increase 1997–2001 (17 to 24 million)
• overall increase 1990–2010 (22 to 27 million)
• overall fluctuation.

Reference to data needs to illustrate trend and not a single point on the graph.

Whether they are still within their country of origin or not.

Award [1] for each reason and [1] for further development or expanded exemplification.

Possible political causes:

• War/conflict [1] – people flee dangers from fighting such as injury and death [1] eg Syrian refugees fleeing fighting [1].
• State persecution [1] – denial of the human rights of individuals or groups [1] eg LGBT in Uganda flee anti-homosexuality laws [1].
• Political ideology [1] – people flee a political regime that is against their own philosophy [1] eg people fleeing communism in Cuba [1].

Possible environmental causes:

• Climate change increasing the incidence of drought/flooding [1] – people forced to migrate to access food [1] eg famine caused by drought causes people to flee from Somalia to Kenya [1].
• Hazard events such as earthquakes [1] affecting more people who have been made homeless [1], eg Haiti to Dominican Republic after 2010 earthquake [1].
• Slow onset environmental change such as desertification [1] – people no longer able to maintain farming or hunting [1] land degradation in Mexico’s drylands causes rural to urban migration.

Do not award credit for simply naming a country without a detail.

Award [1] for each valid, distinct incentive related to identified country.

Possibilities (must relate to named country) and could include:

• tax incentives
• cash payouts when giving birth
• state-funded financial assistance to larger families such as medical care
• priority for housing
• government-subsidized day care
• parental leave – paternity and maternity
• positive portrayal of motherhood
• campaigns to encourage pregnancy.

Award [1] for identification of reason and [1] for how it relates to the country (either by use of data or explaining the issue that the country is trying to tackle).

Possible explanations (related to the named country) could include:

• ageing populations
• low birth rate
• low fertility rate
• shortage of economically active population.

For example: In France, the fertility rate fell below the replacement level [1].
The population was ageing and the workforce was getting smaller [1].