(i) Describe the change in the total number of reported disasters between 1971 and 2010.

(ii) State the type of natural hazard that has not increased in frequency since 1981.

(iii) Estimate the total economic losses due to storms and floods between 1971 and 2010.

Explain three reasons why communities may underestimate the probability of a major hazard event occurring in the area in which they live.

Discuss the view that human vulnerability to natural hazards (excluding river flooding) is greater in urban areas than in rural areas.

(i) The total number of disasters increased [1] from about 750 to about 3500 [1].

[2 marks]

(ii) drought [1]

[1 mark]

(iii) US$1.65 billion (accept 1.6–1.75) [1]

[1 mark]

In each case, award [1] for a valid reason and [1] for further development.

For example, lack of data about previous events [1] may mean that it is impossible to predict the likely return interval of the hazard [1].

Other reasons could include:

• lack of awareness
• lack of information from governments
• lack of education
• low impact of previous hazard events
• delayed impact of a long-term event, such as drought
• fatalistic attitude.

[6 marks]

Rapid urbanization and the concentration of large numbers of people in large urban areas is a feature of many poorer countries. Often, these are major ports occupying low-lying land at or near to sea level. Hurricanes can cause storm surges with major impacts for urban areas. Large unplanned, poorly built shanty towns develop in vulnerable areas, such as steep hillsides or low-lying ground, making them vulnerable to landslides in tectonically active areas or during hurricanes (saturated ground). Poor urban migrants are likely to be unaware of their vulnerability to hazards and lack access to information about what to do in the event of a disaster.

On the other hand, rural areas can be hard to reach after a hazard event/disaster and so mortality may be much higher. Poverty and lack of education in rural areas may also contribute to a high death toll. Some rural areas may be especially prone to certain hazard events, eg areas along plate boundaries, fold mountains, Pacific islands in typhoon belt.

Good answers may discuss dimensions other than rural/urban, such as the level of development as the main influence on vulnerability. They may also discuss how the magnitude/frequency of events may be higher in either rural or urban areas (eg many large cities are on coastal margins where hurricane/typhoon strikes are more likely than in inland rural areas; distribution of coastal cities also corresponds with plate margins).

At band D, expect some description of people’s vulnerability to hazards in different rural/urban places.

At band E, expect either a more detailed explanation of how hazard/hazard vulnerability varies between rural and urban places or some explicit discussion of the statement (eg may argue that many other factors affect vulnerability, and these must be considered too, or may conclude on relative importance of vulnerability in urban areas compared to rural).

At band F, expect both.

Marks should be allocated according to the markbands.

[10 marks]