| Date | November 2020 | Marks available | 6 | Reference code | 20N.2.SL.TZ0.5 |
| Level | SL | Paper | 2 | Time zone | no time zone |
| Command term | Evaluate | Question number | 5 | Adapted from | N/A |
Question
Global warming is a term used to describe the increase in mean global temperatures.
There have been numerous computer simulations developed to predict the effects of global warming. One simulation is NASA’s Virtual Earth System Laboratory (VESL), which allows users to see how climate change affects glacier size, global sea level and changes to the coastline.
The VESL runs simulations in real time and is an abstraction of reality.
A recent study reported that previous simulations of predicted global sea levels for 2100 were highly inaccurate.
Outline what is meant by a real-time simulation in the context of a glacier size simulation.
Outline what is meant by the statement “the VESL simulation is an abstraction of reality”.
Outline two reasons why predictions of global sea levels from simulations may not be accurate.
NASA has decided to make its simulation software available for other scientists as well as members of the public.
Evaluate the social and ethical implications of this decision.
Markscheme
Award [2 max].
A real-time simulation runs at the same rate as the actual physical system;
The change in the glacier size occurs at the same rate as the real change / a virtual glacier will be the same size as the real glacier after the same period of time;
A real time simulation operations it can mean that it happens without a delay/action carried out before the next input;
Changes to the simulation inputs will be displayed immediately;
Award [2 max].
Abstraction removes specific detail that will not the accuracy of the simulation / climate change variables that have little influence;
Abstractions helps create the model / reduces the complexity of the model so that it works effectively;
Symbols may be used to represent patterns (e.g. temperature change);
Award [4 max].
Sea levels are based on so many factors (e.g. CO2 emissions, cattle); that it is difficult to accurate predict all of these variables;
Global events (eg nuclear war, volcanic eruptions);
may cause for an under-prediction;
Unknown variables (confounding factors) may be affecting rising sea levels;
Population growth may increase or decrease and this may impact upon emissions;
Accept any reasonable argument
Award [6 max].
Award [3 max] for positive reasons.
Award [3 max] for negative reasons.
Award [1 max] for a reasonable conclusion.
Positive
Making it free means more people may use it;
Educating the public may encourage more people to be environmental friendly (e.g. boycott plastics);
This may lead to pressure on governments to reduce emissions;
May provide valuable data for scientists who don’t have access to NASA resources;
Negative
Users may not fully understand the simulation results and may misinterpret findings;
May change the perception of the accuracy of the simulation software / Users may not value predictions when the simulator seems so simple;
Predictions that don’t reflect the real change may do damage to public perception of climate change;
