| Date | May 2019 | Marks available | 3 | Reference code | 19M.2.SL.TZ0.5 |
| Level | SL | Paper | 2 | Time zone | no time zone |
| Command term | Explain | Question number | 5 | Adapted from | N/A |
Question
Many health agencies are using simulations in an attempt to understand how their resources could be used in the future. With many countries experiencing aging populations, health agencies have worked with computer scientists to develop simulations that will enable them to manage their resources more effectively.
One of the key features of these simulations is the development of “what-if” models.
The following variables can be considered as part of a model to be used to simulate the management of an aging population:
- quality of health education
- lifestyle choices such as smoking
- residential region.
Describe the main features of a “what-if” model.
Identify three other variables that could be included in this model.
Explain the ethical issues that may arise from the collection of information for this model.
Explain why the model would be converted to a simulation.
Markscheme
Award [4 max].
Data is entered into a rule-based environment;
The rules may be kept the same and the nature of the data input may be varied;
Or the data that is input may remain the same and the rules may be varied;
Which allows for a range of possible scenarios to be investigated;
Award [3 max].
Life expectancy;
Gender;
Availability of life-extending treatments;
Genetic information;
Allow other appropriate answers.
Award [5 max].
Example answer:
One ethical issue is invasion of privacy;
to get the best quality model;
sensitive personal data will need to be collected;
trade-off between the benefits of this model and level of intrusion into people's lives;
especially if the data is being shared with third parties;
Award [3 max].
Simulation may be used to handle uncertainty and provide ranges of expected outputs; e.g. repeatedly inputting data drawn from random samples of plausible input values;
To look at the predicted spread of outcomes over time (consider the use of simulation in the analysis of queues);
A simulation is considered to be a representation of a model over time;
This means that the simulation can be used over a longer period of the development life cycle;
It can be used to assist with stages such as the implementation stage;
Examiners report
Many candidates did not address the specific points related to a “what-if” model and provided a generic description of the model.
This question was relatively well done. Most candidates were able to identify the correct set of variables.
Many candidates were able to identify and explain suitable ethical issues. A relatively small number of candidates had difficulty in developing their responses beyond generic points.
Most responses tended to be generic. Candidates were unable to explain why the model would be converted to a simulation.
