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Date	May Example question	Marks available	3	Reference code	EXM.1.AHL.TZ0.17
Level	Additional Higher Level	Paper	Paper 1	Time zone	Time zone 0
Command term	Find	Question number	17	Adapted from	N/A

Question

Sue sometimes goes out for lunch. If she goes out for lunch on a particular day then the probability that she will go out for lunch on the following day is 0.4. If she does not go out for lunch on a particular day then the probability she will go out for lunch on the following day is 0.3.

Write down the transition matrix for this Markov chain.

[2]

We know that she went out for lunch on a particular Sunday, find the probability that she went out for lunch on the following Tuesday.

[2]

Find the steady state probability vector for this Markov chain.

[3]

Markscheme

$(\begin{matrix} 0.4 & 0.3 0.6 & 0.7 \end{matrix})$ $\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {0.4}&{0.3} \\ {0.6}&{0.7} \end{array}} \right)$ M1A1

[2 marks]

${(\begin{matrix} 0.4 & 0.3 0.6 & 0.7 \end{matrix})}^{2} (\begin{matrix} 10 \end{matrix}) = (\begin{matrix} 0.34 0.66 \end{matrix})$ ${\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {0.4}&{0.3} \\ {0.6}&{0.7} \end{array}} \right)^2}\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 1 \\ 0 \end{array}} \right) = \left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {0.34} \\ {0.66} \end{array}} \right)$ M1

So probability is 0.34 A1

[2 marks]

$(\begin{matrix} 0.4 & 0.3 0.6 & 0.7 \end{matrix}) (\begin{matrix} p 1 - p \end{matrix}) = (\begin{matrix} p 1 - p \end{matrix}) \Rightarrow 0.4 p + 0.3 (1 - p) = p \Rightarrow p = \frac{1}{3}$ $\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {0.4}&{0.3} \\ {0.6}&{0.7} \end{array}} \right)\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} p \\ {1 - p} \end{array}} \right) = \left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} p \\ {1 - p} \end{array}} \right) \Rightarrow 0.4p + 0.3\left( {1 - p} \right) = p \Rightarrow p = \frac{1}{3}$ M1A1

So vector is $(\begin{matrix} \frac{1}{3} \frac{2}{3} \end{matrix})$ $\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {\tfrac{1}{3}} \\ {\tfrac{2}{3}} \end{array}} \right)$ A1

[or by investigating high powers of the transition matrix]

[3 marks]

Examiners report

[N/A]

Syllabus sections

Topic 4—Statistics and probability » AHL 4.19—Transition matrices – Markov chains

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EXM.3.AHL.TZ0.4a.ii:
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SPM.2.AHL.TZ0.6b:
Find the eigenvalues and corresponding eigenvectors of T.
EXM.3.AHL.TZ0.4c.ii:
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22M.2.AHL.TZ2.5a.ii:
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22M.2.AHL.TZ2.5d.i:
when $n = 5$ .
22M.2.AHL.TZ2.5d.ii:
in the long term.
22M.2.AHL.TZ2.5a.i:
Write down the value of $b$ .
EXM.3.AHL.TZ0.4a.i:
Draw a transition state diagram for this Markov chain problem.
SPM.2.AHL.TZ0.6e:
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EXM.1.AHL.TZ0.17b:
We know that she went out for lunch on a particular Sunday, find the probability that she went out for lunch on the following Tuesday.
21M.2.AHL.TZ1.5a:
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21M.2.AHL.TZ1.5b:
Find the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of $T$ .
21M.2.AHL.TZ1.5c.ii:
Write down the matrix $D$ .
EXM.3.AHL.TZ0.4d:
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EXM.1.AHL.TZ0.18a:
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EXM.3.AHL.TZ0.4e:
Find ${{\mathbf{v}}_1}{\text{,}}\,\,{{\mathbf{v}}_2}{\text{,}}\,\,{{\mathbf{v}}_3}{\text{,}}\,\,{{\mathbf{v}}_4}\,$ .
EXM.3.AHL.TZ0.4g:
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EXM.1.AHL.TZ0.17a:
Write down the transition matrix for this Markov chain.
SPM.2.AHL.TZ0.6c:
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SPM.2.AHL.TZ0.6d:
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EXM.1.AHL.TZ0.18b:
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EXN.1.AHL.TZ0.5a:
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EXM.3.AHL.TZ0.4c.i:
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EXM.3.AHL.TZ0.4h:
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SPM.2.AHL.TZ0.6a:
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21M.2.AHL.TZ1.5d:
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EXN.1.AHL.TZ0.5b:
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EXM.3.AHL.TZ0.4b:
Write down the transition matrix M, for this Markov chain problem.
EXM.3.AHL.TZ0.4f:
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21M.1.AHL.TZ2.13c:
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21N.1.AHL.TZ0.9b:
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