Describe the projected trends for the two dependent population groups from 2020 to 2060.

Suggest two potential socio-economic problems that could result from the projected population trend.

Socio-economic problem 1:

Socio-economic problem 2:

Explain two ways in which one named country benefits from a demographic dividend.

Named country: 

Way 1:

Way 2:

Award [1] for each valid descriptive statement. Needs separate reference to both elderly [1] and children [1] for maximum marks.

Quantification is needed for [2].

Possibilities include:

• 65 and over - no change / the proportion increases (actual amount remains 34–36 million but the percentage of 65 and over increases)
• 0–15 - drops (from 14–16 in 2020 to 7–9 in 2060) / the proportion of the total population decreases).

The trend can be falling population total / a greying population / decreasing number of children.

Allow [1] for a valid problem and [1] for development or exemplification.

Possibilities include:

• declining population and the resulting economic implications, such as a reduced workforce, decreased tax revenue, shortage of qualified workers, declining productivity, high labour costs, a smaller tax base
• declining population and social implications, such as social consequences of immigration caused by shortage of workers
• increased dependency ratio/ageing population - increased expenditure to care for an ageing population due to pensions, health care
• decreasing number of children – may lead to closure of schools, unemployment in education sector

For example: An ageing population [1] would need more money to be spent on pensions [1], which would take a larger proportion of a nation’s GDP [1]. as seen in the UK [1].

For example: A declining population [1] means that there will be a smaller workforce [1], which may mean that people are made to stay in work for longer [1]. In recent years the retirement age in Canada has increased from 65 to 67 [1].

Allow [1] for a valid way and [1] for development or exemplification.

Possibilities include:

• Increased proportion of the population in the independent age range – provides a larger work force, increase in economic growth, potentially a larger market, increase in tax returns
• Falling fertility rates – more women enter the workforce, boosting gender equity, lower proportion of children to support, frees up resources for investment in economic development/family welfare
• Attracts large amounts of foreign investment, the nation becomes more important on the global stage.
• Increase in savings rate – working age is the prime period for saving, working population saving for old age
• Potential reduction in poverty – higher proportion of population working,(higher proportion of middle-income earners)

For example: India has one of the youngest populations and this will give an increase in economic growth [1] due to an increase in the proportion of independent population that provides a workforce [1].

Award a maximum of [3] if no valid country is identified.

The better answers took each dependent population and gave a valid comment on the projected changes from 2020 to 2060 using quantification from the resource. However, there were a number of issues that restricted access to full credit. Many did not heed the time period required by the question and examined the graph from 2020 to 2100 and stated, incorrectly, that the elderly displayed a significant decrease. A number of comments combined the two groups stating that both had declined whilst the question asked for comment on each. A number of answers displayed a lack of ability to read a basic compound line graph which meant that quantification was an issue for some candidates.

Candidates frequently showed a clear knowledge and understanding of a declining and ageing population. Answers identified both social and economic problems and were able to develop both elements of their responses. There were some strong comments relating to economic problems, however there could have been more integrated exemplification. Some candidates adopted a narrow focus in their answers and repetition of the same point was an issue.

Many responses made changes to the size and dynamism of the workforce the focal point of their answers with development directed at the economic benefits of increased output and potential market. A significant number also saw the benefits for inward investment, but fewer answers examined the gender-related social benefits. Candidates need to be aware of the countries that have recently benefited from the demographic dividend and avoid historic examples.