Estimate the numbers of tourist arrivals in 2015 for Africa, and for Asia and the Pacific

Outline one reason why international tourism data may be unreliable.

Explain one economic factor and one political factor that may have contributed to the increased numbers of tourist arrivals for Asia and the Pacific from 2000 to 2015.

Examine the cultural and political factors that might affect success for countries participating in major international sports.

• Africa: 57 million (accept 50-70 million) [1];
• Asia and the Pacific: 270 million (accept 250 million to 290 million) [1].

Award [1] for reason and [1] for further development/exemplification.

Possibilities include:

• inaccurate recording of data
• free movement of people/tourists, eg in EU
• poor border controls/porous borders.

For example: Some people are incorrectly recorded as tourists [1] as they may be travelling for other purposes, eg they are travelling for work primarily [1] / they are in transit/between flights [1].

In each case, award [1] for identifying a relevant factor and [2] for further development and/or exemplification linking to increased numbers.

Possible factors include:

• Economic factors – more disposable incomes; reduced cost of air travel; economic development in receiving countries.
• Political factors – easier border controls; governments supporting tourist developments; political stability.

For example (economic): The growth of international tourism is closely linked to economic development and the general increase in disposable incomes [1]. As a result, increasing numbers of people from Europe and N. America are able to afford the cost of long distance travel to Asia/Pacific [1]. Also, increasing numbers of better-off people in Asia and the Pacific are able to afford travel to other Asian/Pacific countries for the purpose of tourism [1].

Cultural factors might include length of time the sport has been played in a particular country; increased prominence and support given to sports for disabled people, and for females in sports such as rugby and cricket; publicity from hosting of major international sporting events; role models; willingness to “bend the rules”, eg doping.

Political factors might include political associations, such as the Commonwealth; government support for particular sports; government funding for sports; migration and settlement; international tournaments; national pride.

Good answers might consider the interrelations between cultural and political factors. Another approach might be to examine the relative importance of the two factors in different place contexts, eg low- and high-income countries. While high-income countries may excel in a range of sports, some low-income countries have achieved considerable success in a limited range of sports, due to national pride, political support and national icons.

At band D, expect description of some cultural and/or political factors that might be important in achieving success in some sports.

At band E, expect either a more detailed explanation of both factors, or some examination of what “success” means for individual sports or countries.

At band F, expect both.

Marks should be allocated according to the Paper 2 markbands (available under the "Your tests" tab > supplemental materials).