User interface language: English | Español

Date November 2013 Marks available 2 Reference code 13N.2.hl.TZ0.5
Level HL only Paper 2 Time zone TZ0
Command term Find Question number 5 Adapted from N/A

Question

At the start of each week, Eric and Marina pick a night at random on which they will watch a movie.

If they choose a Saturday night, the probability that they watch a French movie is 7979 and if they choose any other night the probability that they watch a French movie is 4949.

Find the probability that they watch a French movie.

[3]
a.

Given that last week they watched a French movie, find the probability that it was on a Saturday night.

[2]
b.

Markscheme

P(F)=(17×79)+(67×49)P(F)=(17×79)+(67×49)     (M1)(A1)

 

Note:     Award M1 for the sum of two products.

 

=3163 (=0.4920)=3163 (=0.4920)     A1

[3 marks]

a.

Use of P(S|F)=P(SF)P(F)P(S|F)=P(SF)P(F) to obtain P(S|F)=17×793163P(S|F)=17×793163.     M1

 

Note:     Award M1 only if the numerator results from the product of two probabilities.

 

=731 (=0.2258)=731 (=0.2258)     A1

[2 marks]

b.

Examiners report

Both parts were very well done. In part (a), most candidates successfully used a tree diagram.

a.

Both parts were very well done. In part (b), most candidates correctly used conditional probability considerations.

b.

Syllabus sections

Topic 5 - Core: Statistics and probability » 5.4 » Conditional probability; the definition P(A|P)=P(AB)P(B)P(A|P)=P(AB)P(B) .

View options