Determine the range of hours lost in congestion per year in the selected megacities.

Identify one megacity that will see an estimated decline in population between 2017 and 2030.

Describe the pattern of estimated GDP growth in Asian megacities between 2017 and 2030.

To what extent does the infographic indicate that the consequences of megacity growth are always negative?

232 or 40 − 272 [1]

Tokyo or Osaka [1]

Award [1] for valid comment on overall pattern and [1] for development or exemplification.

Mostly above 100 %
Mostly SE/S/E Asia
Mainly coastal cities
No BR/DR relationship or migration
Highest Dhaka – 35 % [34–36 %]
Smallest growth in Osaka and Tokyo – 2 % [1–3 %]

Quantification required for award of full [2].

Example: Estimated GDP growth in Asian megacities between these years is expected to be mostly over 100 % [1]. The biggest single increase is expected in Dhaka – at least 35 % [1].

The question is asking candidates to examine the positive and negative consequences of megacity growth shown on the infographic. Answers should focus on the identification and development of consequences of megacity growth and not a critique of style.

Award [1] for each positive or negative consequence and further [2] for each supported development/explanation up to a maximum of [5].

Award the final [1] for a supported overall appraisal which weighs up the infographic as a whole.

Award maximum of [4] if only one perspective (positive or negative) is given.

For example:
Initial negative focus:

• Produces high population densities [1] but these are variable [1]: higher in Asian cities [1], lower in the Americas
• Produces urban sprawl [1] mostly in megacities of HICs [1]
• Results in congestion [1], variable magnitude in hours lost [1] (less in US cities [1], no discernable in other cities cited)
• Results in high rates of population growth [1]: African cities growing fastest [1], European cities not growing as fast [1].

Strength:

• Nodes of investment
• High rates of GDP growth [1] mostly Asian cities
• Contribution to countries GDP [1], over-reliance with some cities [1]; some countries have more than one megacity contribution [1].

Overall appraisal can be found at the beginning or end of the answer and maybe a comment such as: The negative consequences are related more to the ordinary lives of people.

For example: The infographic shows that congestion is a negative consequence of growth as drivers in 5 cities lose over 200 hours per year [1]. Some cities are predicted to grow at very fast rates with the population of Lagos estimated to increase by 34% from 2017-30 [1]. Often growth produces high densities of population, especially where the city only covers a limited area [1]. However in Asian megacities there will also be impressive growth in wealth with the GDP of Dhaka growing by about 170% [1]. Megacities also house the most affluent sections of the population [1]. Overall the infographic provides a balanced view of megacity growth [1].

Most candidates used the infographic to give correct answers.

Nearly all answers were correct.

Most answers were able to use the infographic to outline one element of the pattern of estimated GDP growth. Many referred to the magnitude of growth relative to other regions with the better answers commenting on variations within Asia by way of development. Some commented on the spatial distribution within Asia by referring to regional/national patterns or the coastal location. The answers that gained full credit provided some quantification to support their descriptions.

A substantial number of candidates engaged with the infographic in an appropriate manner by analysing its geographical content concerning the consequences of megacity growth. The most common approach was to identify elements of the infographic that had a positive and negative focus with the better responses using data from the resource to support their arguments. Nearly all made comment on GDP growth and congestion although only a minority reflected on population density. Pleasingly some referred to the variation within the measures presented on the infographic by making statements about congestion not being a problem in all megacities, density not being such an issue in megacities with large areal extent or not all cities with a high growth having large increases in GDP. However, this was not frequently observed and may be something that could be worked on in preparation for future assessments. Candidates had been well rehearsed in the structure of a response to this question with clear positive and negative points with a supported conclusion.