“The growth of the global middle class will inevitably accelerate climate change.” To what extent do you agree with this statement?

Marks should be allocated according to the paper 2 section C markbands. These can be found under the “Your tests” tab > supplemental materials.

Possible applied themes (AO2) demonstrating knowledge and understanding (AO1):

• Reponses could show some understanding of the main anthropogenic causes of climate change. The enhanced greenhouse effect should be explored, with a focus on an increase in GHGs is the atmosphere – such as CO₂, CH₄. Sources of these emissions vary over time and space but there is a definite link between a region’s/individual’s emissions and their level of socio-economic development. Per capita global emissions are much higher in high-income regions, as they are linked to development, trade and globalization.
• As low- to middle-income countries develop over time, there is an increase in the standard of living of many millions of their inhabitants. This emerging middle class, given the present model of development, will increase their ecological footprint as consumption and waste generation increases. For example, as disposable income has increased in China over the past 30 years, diets have changed to include more meat. Animal agriculture is a major contributor of greenhouse gasses like methane, and many carbon sinks – such as rainforests – are being cleared to accommodate more grazing land or land for growing cattle feed.
• As this global middle class grows, so does their consumption of fossil fuels, as there is an increase in electricity consumption and car ownership and a demand for foreign goods, which increases global trade – all activities which rely on the use of traditional fossil fuels in many nations.
• It could be noted that the per capita emissions of individuals in high-income nations are still much higher and have been so for a long time.
• Alternatively, responses may disagree with the statement and argue that, as a new middle class grows, there are opportunities to learn from the mistakes of the past and to develop using greener technologies, thus keeping ecological footprints to more sustainable levels than those of the “Economic North”.
• Responses could argue that it is already too late and that we have reached a tipping point where feedback loops are already at play, causing irreversible climate change.

Good answers may be well structured (AO4) and may additionally offer a critical evaluation (AO3) that focuses on the relative role of the growing middle class on speeding up climate change. Responses may address the spatial aspect of middle-class growth and the varying impacts upon climate change.

For 5–6 marks
Expect a weakly evidenced outlining of some links between rising wealth and climate change / carbon emissions.

For 7–8 marks
Expect a well-structured account which includes:

• either a well-evidenced synthesis that links together several themes from the Guide and acknowledges both sides of the argument
• or a critical conclusion (or ongoing evaluation) informed by geographical concepts and/or perspectives.

For 9–10 marks
Expect both traits.

Many responses contained a competent level of knowledge concerning the growth of the global middle class although some dwelled too much on the causes of growth rather than the consequences required by the question. The better answers examined how the growth of the global middle class impacted on consumption, distinguishing between overall increase and the expanding demand for specifics such as Western diets, cars and electronic consumer goods. This was then linked to the utilization of resources and the production of greenhouse gases which was then associated with accelerated climate change. There were some who linked the expansion of the global middle class with urban growth and developed the view that urban living increased the production of greenhouse gases via transport and construction. A significant number addressed the 'to what extent' element although their view was fairly narrow as they looked only at the ability of the new middle class to use new attitudes and technologies to address climate change. Fewer responses commented on the geographical distribution of the growth of the new middle class or their rate of growth in different countries or regions. Candidates were well prepared in their use of exemplar materials with a number using case studies as a structural approach to their answers. Overall, the responses were stronger in knowledge and understanding than application with room to enhance evaluation.